A biostatistician with 30 years of experience


Curriculum Vitae (CV)

Name: Richard A. Hinrichsen

Title: Population modeler/statistician

Education: B.S., Mathematics, Central Washington University (1985); M.S., Mathematical Sciences, Clemson University (1987); Ph.D., Quantitative Ecology and Resource Management, University of Washington (1994).

Technical Experience:

Bonneville Power Administration projects:

Developed population viability models for Columbia River System Operation Environmental Impact Statement (with implications for FCRPS 2021 BiOp and general Fish and Wildlife Program).

Developed estimators of the proportion of hatchery-origin spawners using coded wire tag data and genetic tagging data.

Developed population viability models for endangered ESUs in the Columbia Basin for use in 2008 Biological Opinion.

Reviewed guidelines presented by technical recovery teams for delisting endangered salmonids in the Columbia Basin. Reviewed critically the data and statistical techniques used to set delisting criteria based on population abundance, population trend, and habitat attributes. Recommended ways to make criteria measurable, objective, and unambiguous.

Developed a research and monitoring plan for Columbia Basin salmonids, identifying important design criteria (how many measurements and where) to reduce bias and increase resolution.

Reviewed and developed population models used in the National Marine Fisheries Service Biological Opinion for endangered Columbia River salmon populations (Bonneville Power Administration). Recommended alternative population models for increases precision of estimates of population trend.

Participated in PATH (Plan for Analyzing and Testing Hypotheses) Columbia River modeling group to form alternative population models for calculating the probability of meeting jeopardy and recovery standards set for Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon. Introduced alternative hypotheses on the effects of climate regime shifts on productivity of salmon populations.

Developed, implemented, tested, calibrated, and documented a salmonid juvenile survival model (CRiSP). This model was used by Bonneville Power Administration and National Marine Fisheries Service in their biological assessments.

Evaluated the BPA and Army Corps of Engineers versions of the juvenile salmon passage model FISHPASS by conducting sensitivity analyses to determine what model parameters tended to have the largest influence on passage survival estimates.

UC Davis Project Review Office for the Ecosystem Restoration Program:

Served on Independent Review Panel for the SALSIM 2 model for fall run Chinook salmon in the San Joaquin River. Co-authored final report, dated March 26, 2013.

Anchor Environmental:

Analysis of habitat data in Trinity River collected using a GRTS design. Estimated extinction risks of Lake Washington chinook salmon populations using viability models that accounted for measurement error.

Corp of Engineers project:

Conducted extensive statistical analysis of the survival of fish PIT-tagged and transported in the Snake River Basin.

Analyzed the effects of proposed John Day drawdown on survival and recovery probabilities of endangered Snake River spring/summer chinook. This analysis incorporated several alternative hypotheses on passage survival, effectiveness of transportation, and effects of ocean/climate regime shifts.

Seattle City Light project:

Developed statistical tests for detecting increases in abundance of kokanee in Lake Pend Orielle, Idaho, due to changes in reservoir management. The statistical tests incorporated age-structured population data and autocorrelation in time abundance time series.


Hinrichsen, R.A., and Paulsen, C.M. 2020. Low carrying capacity a risk for threatened Chinook Salmon. Ecological Modelling 432, Issue C, number S0304380020302933.

Hinrichsen, R.A., Steele, C.A., Ackerman, M.W., Campbell, M.R., Narum, S.R., Hess, M.A., Young, W.P., Shields, B.A., and Maschhoff, B.L. 2016. Maximum likelihood estimation of the proportion of hatchery-origin fish on spawning grounds using coded wire tagging and parentage based tagging. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 45:671-686.

Hinrichsen, R.A., Hasselman, D.J., Ebbesmeyer, C.C., and Shields, B.A. 2013. The role of impoundments, temperature, and discharge on the colonization of the Columbia River Basin, USA, by nonindigenous American Shad. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 142:887-900.

Hinrichsen, R.A., R. Sharma, and T.R. Fisher. 2012. Precision and accuracy of estimators of the proportion of hatchery-origin spawners. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 141:437-454.

Hasselman, D.J., Hinrichsen, R.A., Shields, B.A., and C.C. Ebbesmeyer. 2012. The rapid establishment, dispersal, and increased abundance of invasive American shad in the Pacific Northwest. Fisheries 37(3): 105-116.

Hasselman, D.J., Hinrichsen, R.A., Shields, B.A., and C.C. Ebbesmeyer. 2012. American shad of the Pacific coast: a harmful invasive species or benign introduction? Fisheries 37(3): 117-124.

Hinrichsen, R.A. and Fisher, T.R. 2009. Inferences on the Latent Mortality of Snake River Spring–Summer-Run Chinook Salmon Using Spawner–Recruit Models. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 138:1232–1239.

Hinrichsen, R.A. 2009. Population viability analysis for several populations using multivariate state-space models. Ecological Modelling 200: 1197-1202.

Hinrichsen, R. A. and Holmes, E.E. 2009. Using multivariate state-space models to study spatial structure and dynamics. In Spatial Ecology(editors Robert Stephen Cantrell, Chris Cosner, Shigui Ruan). CRC/Chapman Hall.

Paulsen, C.M., Hinrichsen, R.A., and Fisher, T.R. 2007. Measure twice, estimate once: Pacific salmon population viability analysis for highly variable populations. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society. 136:346-364.

Hinrichsen, R.A. and Van Holmes, C. 2006. Snake River Fall chinook salmon life history diversity. Independent Technical Analysis Process, Bonneville Power Administration Report. 26 pages.

Hinrichsen, R.A. 2003. The power of experiments for estimating relative reproductive success of hatchery-born spawners. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 60:864-872.

Petersen, J.H, Hinrichsen, R.A., Gadomski, D.M., Feil, D.H., and Rondorf, D.W. 2003. American shad in the Columbia River. In Biodiversity, Status, and Conservation of the World's Shads. Edited by K.E. Limburg and J.R. Waldman. American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, Maryland.

Hinrichsen, R.A. 2002. The accuracy of alternative stochastic growth estimates for salmon populations. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 59: 1014-1023.

Paulsen, C.M., and Hinrichsen, R.A. 2002. Experimental management for Snake River spring–summer chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha): trade-offs between conservation and learning for a threatened species. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. 59: 717–725.

Hinrichsen, R.A. 2001. The importance of influence diagnostics: examples from the Snake River chinook salmon spawner-recruit models. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 58: 551-559.

Hinrichsen, R.A. 2001. High variability in spawner-recruit data hampers learning. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. 58: 769-776.

Hinrichsen, R.A. 1998. The ghost run of the Cowlitz. Cowlitz County Historical Quarterly. 40(2):5-21.

Ingraham, W.J., C.C. Ebbesmeyer, and R.A. Hinrichsen. 1998. Imminent climate and circulation shift in Northeast Pacific Ocean could have major impact on marine resources. EOS 79: 197.

Hinrichsen, R.A. 1994. Optimization models for understanding migration behavior of juvenile chinook salmon. Ph.D. dissertation. University of Washington. Seattle, Washington. USA.

Hinrichsen, R.A. 1987. The Leslie model with harvesting. Master's thesis. Clemson University. Clemson, South Carolina, USA. 29p.